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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Interview Series: Jonathan Bales

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As part of our 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide we’re bringing you a QnA with some of the brightest minds in the virtual game to help you understand what makes them tick in their own leagues, and what strategies are worth employing in your own fantasy football draft strategy and roster management to help you dominate your league. First up: Jonathan Bales of ‘Fantasy Football for Smart People‘ fame, to talk how to best prepare yourself for success with your fantasy football draft strategy.

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People series and founder of RotoAcademy. He’s a regular contributor to the New York Times, where he posts both “real” and fantasy football content, as well as NBC, Dallas Morning News, RotoWorld, 4for4, and rotoViz. He was a finalist for the FSWA’s Fantasy Football Series of the Year award.

[This interview appears as part of our free 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide]

You’ve got a whole compendium of tools out to help people excel at daily games – readers: the Fantasy Football for Smart People series is worth your time – but you’ve gotten into helping with season long contests recently, including the recently launched 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Course video series. Can you tell us a little about the content?

In regards to the video series, it looks at 12 different draft strategies I think you could employ in 2014 to be successful – things like Zero-RB, Zero-WR, Antifragile Drafting, and so on. I do 12 mock drafts from 12 different draft slots to sort of take viewers through my thought process with each pick.

With regard to the book series, I know the subject is the world of DFS, but when reading I took note of a few salient passages that could be applied to season-long games as well. Since this interview is really all about what interests me, let’s take them on rapid-fire style:

You talk about the value of doing research, and specifically about making use of existing Vegas game lines and prop bets in assessing likely player outcomes for a given game. How does this factor into lineup decision? We get a lot of should I start player X or Y (or, more accurately, should I start X,Y,Z,Q,P or S – pick the exact right one or I’m calling you a doofus) questions and we want our readers to keep asking them, but why should they check in with the odds makers first?

The reason Vegas is so valuable is because it’s extremely efficient and accurate. You have people with millions of dollars on their opinions, so those are generally opinions you can trust. So instead of doing all kinds of work projecting a player, you can look at his game prop and immediately get a really accurate sense of his median projection for a game.

Jonathan Bales sees C.J. Spiller as a player offering bounce-back value in 2014 (Photo: Bill Wippert/Associated Press).

Jonathan Bales sees C.J. Spiller as a player offering bounce-back value in 2014 (Photo: Bill Wippert/Associated Press).

In the book you make coaching the 2009 Lions (after the ’08 version went 0-16) sound like the world’s best job. Why is a 2013 disappointment a 2014 draft day target (in some cases)? Is there anyone specific you’re targeting this year based on ADP discount?

The main reason disappointments can often offer value in the NFL is because of seasonal variance. With just 16 games, we see all kinds of variance in stats and records from year to year. People overreact to those trends and create draft inefficiencies. 

To bounce back in 2014, I like Lamar Miller, D. Hopkins, Sam Bradford, and C.J. Spiller. I also like David Wilson if he can get touches.

Editor’s note: we’ve covered Lamar Miller and his role with Knowshon Moreno’s injury et. al; DeAndre Hopkins as part of our sophomore breakout piece and C.J. Spiller as perhaps the ultimate draft day value based on the perception of his down year in 2013.

Last week former Patriots and Chiefs OC Charlie Weiss made some pro-mobile QB comments. We won’t debate whether they are the future of the NFL or not, but in terms of consistency why might they be the future of winning fantasy drafters? On that note – should we be worried about Cam Newton and his supposed lack of receiving options this year? Any other running QBs you’ve got an eye on?

I like mobile QBs in head-to-head leagues because their versatility increases their floor from week to week. A player like Newton can throw for only 150 yards and still give you great production with his legs. There’s perceived risk with those guys in terms of injuries, but that’s easily negated by doubling up on them; the cost of guys like EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Manziel, etc. is so low that you can draft two, have lots of upside, and also have access to an underrated floor. 

So, if we’re looking for a guy who adds numbers on the ground in our Quarterback what are some traits or statistics we should chase at other positions?

QB – Mobile, big hands
RB – Opportunities, straight-line speed, youth, pass-catching ability, weight
WR /TE- Size (weight), TD-scoring ability
While I didn’t specifically read this anywhere, I feel like you’re gonna vibe with it. We did some preliminary work last pre-season looking at players with outlier performances – that is one or two monster games throughout the course of the season that make their overall body of work look more impressive than it is – and plan to look into the subject further heading into 2014 draft season. My outlook is: I’d rather own Player A who produces 160 fantasy points on the season in nice, consistent 10 point increments than I would Player B who yields two 40 point weeks but scores less than six in each of the other contests. Those 10 point outings give me a greater chance of winning week to week. You with me?
Yeah, with you, although I think the willingness to embrace game-to-game variance depends on the league type: bad in head-to-head, good in best-ball (or GPPs in daily fantasy football).

I know it is presented as a DFS lineup strategy, but you mention the notion of avoiding volatility. Stacking projected high scoring games may make sense but why wouldn’t I want to start a QB and WR on the same team in certain scenarios?

Willingness to pair teammates should depend on how much you want upside versus safety; good to stack if you’re an underdog, for example, bad if you’re the favorite.

On that note, what about reverse stacking/trying to play ‘fantasy defense’. Assuming equal weekly matchups, how would you answer the question “My opponent is starting Philip Rivers. Should I start Keenan Allen over Calvin Johnson this week (to mitigate the impact of Rivers’ passing touchdowns)?”

I’d almost always start the best player, so never Allen over Calvin, but in close situations, I’d pick starters based on your opponent’s lineup.

So… a bit of a twist to finish: I use an obnoxious amount of commas in my work. My editor hates it (editors note: I do hate it). As a published author who is regularly featured in the New York Times, (<—there’s one) you don’t need me to tell you that your writing style makes for an easy, compelling read… but, well, I’m telling you. Do you have any quick tips for the aspiring authors in the crowd?

My main tip for writers is to read more (and read outside of your area of expertise). I think the majority of writing mistakes are the result of not reading enough quality writing. I try to read non-sports materials that I enjoy every night, at least for a bit. 

Awesome, thanks Jonathan. That sounds like the quote of a man trying to sell a few books. Readers… if you found this valuable, go buy a copy. I know its helped my DFS game, and it will help yours, too.

The post Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Interview Series: Jonathan Bales appeared first on Fantasy Sports Locker Room.


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